International energy companies say they have discovered potentially massive natural gas fields off the coast of Mozambique.
The Italian energy firm ENI last month announced two major finds in the Mamba South gas fields off Mozambique's northeastern coast. The company said the field, located 45 kilometers off Cabo Delgado province, could yield more than 22 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
The
announcement follows that of the American oil company
Anadarko, which said its gas fields in the same area
could yield up to 10 trillion cubic feet of natural
gas. And, Britain's Cove Energy PLC estimates it
exploration field in the same area could eventually
yield 40 trillion cubic feet of gas.
Gas flows are expected to come on line between 2014 and
2016.
"It is big," noted Tony Twine is director and senior
economist at Econometrix, South Africa's largest
independent macro-economic consultant firm. "It would
provide about $150 billion at 2010 gas prices, it really
is a significant find. Incidentally, $150 billion is
equivalent to ten full years of Mozambique gross
domestic product. So relative to their other sources of
income, this is massive."
Twine says the fields are huge by any standards and
promise an enormous financial windfall for the country.
Mozambique is one of the world's poorest countries,
having emerged from a 15-year civil war in 1992 with its
infrastructure devastated and its economy shattered.
The country has made many gains since then and continues
to be one of the continent's fastest growing economies.
Even so, economists note this growth comes off a very
small base, and that most Mozambicans still live on less
than $1.25 a day.
Arsenio Mabote, the chief executive officer of
Mozambique's National Petroleum Institute (INP) says the
financial benefits from the gas must be used to develop
the country's economy and its citizens.
"As I told you employment is very important to us,
improvement of different infrastructure is very
important for us, build up capacity," Mabote said.
"Training of Mozambican employees is part of the package
that we would like to see so that by exploiting natural
resources like natural gas, will benefit the country."
And, Mabote sees benefits too for Cabo Delgado province
where there have been almost no infrastructure
improvements since the end of the civil war, two decades
ago.
"It will enable us also to improve our basic
infrastructure," Mabote added. "As a matter of fact, if
you look at Pemba where the gas discoveries are being
made, you have no adequate infrastructure there, by
implementing these kind of projects will definitely
increase the infrastructure situation, improve the
infrastructure situation."
Mobote says the country will also be looking to
added-value projects to ensure even greater income and
build capacity in Mozambique.
"Implementation of projects that add value to the gas in
Mozambique - such as liquefied natural gas, ammonia
projects, fertilizers, methanol projects, power
generation projects - those projects will have a lot of
importance because they will possible build up capacity
in the country, train a lot of technicians as well and
high-level technical people to work for those projects,"
Mobote explained.
Economist Twine says that these are the dream projects
that promise unbelievably high macro-economic gains.
But he says, even without the dream projects, Mozambique
stands to gain well beyond the simple cash flow generate
by exploiting the gas fields from royalties, mining
rights, taxes on profits and personal incomes generated
both upstream and downstream from the actual gas
extraction.
"So the eventual Mozambican fiscal take, at a rough
guess would probably be around about 30 percent of the
total value added, which I guess would be in the region
of $100 billion for the life of the project," Twine
noted. "So about $35 billion, which is 3 1/2 years'
worth of Mozambican GDP, just popping up as direct
revenue to the Mozambican government."
Twine says the benefits of such large gas fields will
also flow to other countries in the region, such as
Zimbabwe, Malawi and especially for South Africa,
Mozambique's largest trading partner.
"And a rule of thumb applied by economists in South
Africa is that for every dollar that is spent on
Mozambique, wherever the dollar comes from, it doesn't
matter for every dollar, 60 cents of that dollar in turn
is spent on goods and services emanating from South
Africa. So even for its large economy neighbor South
Africa, it would be very, very big," Twine added.
Large energy projects around the globe are often
accompanied by corruption, where the cash flows often do
not reach the national treasury. Twine notes that in
Angola, between 80 and 90 percent of oil revenues go
missing. But he says that in existing onshore gas
projects in Mozambique the picture is very different and
that revenues appear to go where they should. He says
this is encouraging for the potentially massive revenue
windfall anticipated in Mozambique.



